Realizing that the last few blog posts have gotten intense, personal, and heavy in tone and focus, I want to send out a blog post reprieve-- one that focuses on the statistical side of baseball, that will be enjoyed by several (like, one or two?) of my loyal readers. Today and tomorrow will have baseball-related blog posts, followed by another discussion of my previous post, and then later next week I will begin to discuss some business-related topics. For now, sit back, relax, and enjoy the trip into the world of sabermetrics.
Last summer, while working for Time Warner Cable (what a great cable company! Comcast can choke on it, amirite??) in Charlotte, I was able to watch the Charlotte Knights play a couple of exciting, Triple-A level baseball games. (If you are a Brent Morel fan- and let's be honest, who isn't- he will be rehabbing with said Knights for this next week. Consider yourself fortunate that I know such things.) When I was watching the first game, one player caught my attention. He was a fast, pure-swinging CF named Alejandro De Aza. After making obligatory Alejandro jokes (1st and LAST Lady Gaga reference in this blog), I talked with a couple of White Sox fans. He was not super-well known, but definitely considered to be a future White Sox player. A cursory search of his FanGraphs page led me to learn that he had played briefly with the Marlins and a handful of games with the White Sox, but had mostly been in AAA for year. His big-league career was only 194 ABs, so it was hard to consider him anything other than an old rookie with spotty Major League playing time. In the second game I attended, he cracked a towering 3-run HR and a triple, not to mention an unreal diving catch. I turned to my friend and said, "That kid is gonna play in the Bigs again." Two weeks later, in his first Major league game in almost a year, he hit a HR for the White Sox. Boom city. Tim Nic, talent evaluating genius!
The fascinating thing about De Aza is that he has had such short, random appearances in the Majors without getting a "AAAA" label. After all, at 28 years old, he has only had 543 total at-bats (as of May 30, 2012). He has never been able to stay in the Majors full-time but as had enough playing time to not be a Quad-A player. What gives?
While White Sox fans sing his praises, I want to temper their optimism with a reminder: he is taking the place of Juan Pierre. You and I could play Juan Pierre baseball (the key is to hit the ball solely in the infield and play wildly inferior defense). With that said, the question has to be asked: is De Aza capable of sticking around in the Majors, or is the Quad-A label soon to follow?
First the downsides of De Aza. At 28 he for the first time in his career started in the Majors between two seasons. In other words: kid is still inexperienced. His speed is an asset, but had to waste the larger part of his time stealing bases in Triple-A. Also, he gets caught stealing a lot. His speed is unreal, but when you get caught 33% of the time, as he did in the Minors in 2011 or 28.1% in the Majors since his call-up, his base-running is suspect. Not exactly a description you want for a fast dude. Also, he has to get on to be able to get thrown out. BB% and K% normalize fairly quickly (around 150 PAs), so after 224 plate appearances in 2012, his 20.1% K rate is slightly concerning. Striking out is not going to keep him in the league, especially considering he is not a power hitter. His arm strength is fairly low (FG gives it a 45 in a crowd-sourced review), which has led to all of zero assists in 2012.
The good news is: those weaknesses are largely treatable. Aside from decreasing speed due to increasing age, De Aza should be able to work through those issues. To wit: he might strike out more than league average (19.5%) but he is already getting more patient at the plate. His BB% is up from last year, and his career average, and is currently 10.4% which is almost 2% higher than MLB average. (Almost twice Juan Pierre's BB%! Boy, do I love hating that guy...) Not only is he walking more, he is not swinging at bad pitches. His O-Swing% (swinging at balls outside the strike zone) is down to 25.2% (league average is 29.8%) from his career average of around 27%. It is simple math: De Aza swings at better pitches, which leads to more walks. This has led to a slash statistic of 0.284/0.363/0.421. For reference, that is a career increase in all three categories, especially in OBP which is expected due to the higher walk rate. Sure, his ISO is league average, and sure, his BABIP is 0.349, but it is too early to know how much of that BABIP is luck versus repeatable skill (but hey, isn't that always the issue. Looking at you, Mr. Jeter?).
Overall, De Aza has a 2012 WAR of 1.8, which is good enough for Top 30 in the league. WAR has large limitations (is it inflated by his high speed score?), but it certainly indicates that his wRC+ of 116 is worth watching. By continuing to work on throwing technique, decreasing his penchant for Ks, and work on running the bases, De Aza should be able to play in Chicago for a few more years, much to the enjoyment of myself. And White Sox fans, I guess. And everyone who hates Juan Pierre.
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