As I
write this, I am staring at a list of transactions that has turned the 2012
Trade Deadline into a nightmare for Texas Rangers fans. With the news that Cole Hamels signed an extension with the Philadelphia Phillies (3 days after I said I wanted to see
him on the Rangers, not sure if that qualifies as a jinx or not, but just to be
safe this post will mention nothing about a Phillies southpaw who once carried
the Rangers to their first World Series), the market for starting pitchers
became unusually thin. Zack Greinke
became the best pitcher available, with a significant drop-off between him and
a “second-tier” featuring Jason Vargas, Francisco Liriano, and WandyRodriguez. Sure enough, the Rangers
refused to include 3B Mike Olt in a deal to acquire Greinke, and he ended up on
the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. With
the Angels only 5 games behind the Rangers, this move could very well alter the
course of the AL West race (not to be overlooked – the A’s are actually in
second place, 4.5 games back).
Since I
cannot face the fact that this was a great move for the Angels (arguably the league’s
best rotation now - Jeff Weaver, CJ Wilson, Greinke, Dan Haren and Ervin
Santana – 5 All-Stars), I want to instead focus on the arrival of Francisco
Liriano in the Windy City. Liriano has
been the epitome of inconsistency this year – recently striking out 25 batters
in a 2 game stretch before yielding 7 runs at the White Sox in less than 3
innings. He always seems to attract
attention in fantasy leagues thanks to his remarkable K/9 (9.81 this year – 6th best in the league if he qualified). For
some reason, his strikeout totals are enough to have fantasy owners crawling
back to him after he posts a stellar outing.
These owners, though, are always left bitter when the inevitable start
arrives where he gives up 6+ runs and doesn’t get out of the third inning.
So will
a change of scenery help Liriano? In short, no - Despite his impressive K/9,
Liriano is 1 of 7 pitchers ever (with at least 17 games started) to have a K/9
of at least 9.8 and still have a K:BB ratio under 2. He may be striking batters out, but any
advantage it would normally give him is erased by his horrifying tendency to
issue free passes (currently 55 walks in 100 innings). While the other 6 pitchers include Nolan
Ryan, Randy Johnson, Sandy Koufax and Bobby Witt, it is important to point out
that their combined ERA is 3.92 and they have a combined record of
141-152. Also, Liriano’s ERA+ this year is 77. What does this mean? It means that Liriano is a well below-average
pitcher this year when you remove ballpark factors (the average pitcher’s ERA+
is 100). This is especially revealing as
Target Field is a notorious pitchers’ park and he will no longer be making half
of his starts there. It is also important
to note that Liriano has a 1.74 WHIP away from Target Field. Also, his K:BB ratio is 1.6 and opponents are hitting an impressive .296
against him. Long story short? I hope you aren't a White Sox fan...
Miscellaneous Notes about the Rangers:
Josh Hamilton continues to struggle at the plate, even to
the point where Nolan Ryan called him out for being too aggressive (when Nolan
Ryan says you are being too aggressive, you have some serious problems). One of the reasons? Hamilton hit .385 in April-May on pitches
away in the zone. Since June 1st
he is hitting only .171.
Mike Olt is supposed to be the centerpiece of any deal the
Rangers make at the deadline, but it was recently revealed that they refused to
include him in a deal for Zack Greinke.
Why? With Adrian Beltre at 3rd,
I can only assume he is being groomed as the 1B of the future. I really like Olt (what’s not to like – his splits
at AA Frisco, in 92 games, are .291/27/80, and oh by the way he plays
above-average defense at third), but I think I’d pull the trigger for
he-who-will-not-be-named-in-this-article. I would not, however, include him in a deal for James Shields, Josh Beckett, Josh Johnson, etc. Olt could very well be starting at first (or in the OF) next year.
Until next time,
JT
