The end of July is approaching, which only means one thing - The Trade Deadline is nearly here. As an avid baseball fan, July is my favorite month that does not start with "Oct". Now that the Rangers are once again relevant in baseball, I spend most of my day scrounging absurd blogs and websites hoping to see "Texas Rangers agree to ship 2 D- prospects and a sack lunch to the Phillies for Cole Hamels." While this may be overly optimistic, the playoff race is shaped in July, and I long to pick up that one piece that will finally get the Rangers their first championship.
Perhaps more important is the effect the trade deadline has on fantasy leagues everywhere. Trades have a significant impact on players' fantasy abilities - their comfort level changes as they change parks, teams, leagues, etc. For some players (I'm looking at you, Kevin Youkilis), a change of scenery is exactly what they need to get their season back on track. For others, though, switching teams has the complete opposite effect, turning a promising season into one full of frustration for the player, his new team, and fantasy owners everywhere.
Two significant trades were announced yesterday that fantasy owners have to be wary of, namely anyone with Anibal Sanchez. Owned in only 85% of ESPN leagues, Sanchez's value has fluctuated significantly all season. In his last 3 starts he has pitched 20 innings, given up only 6 runs, and even struck out a batter per inning. His performance has convinced owners to take a flier on him (ownership up 12% last week), attempting to ride his hot streak. My suggestion - if you own him, drop him. If he's available, steer clear.
You may be asking yourself "Why would I not want a solid pitcher on a hot streak who was just traded to a better team?" Fair question, but let me ask it another way. Would you grab a starting pitcher with 3 decent starts who just got traded to the American League (significantly tougher league for pitchers to thrive). Statistically, pitchers' K/9 decreases while their BB/9, ERA and WHIP both increase. On average, ERA increases approximately .41 runs (for reference, that would put Sanchez's ERA around 4.35). I think Sanchez's wins might improve the rest of the way (the Tigers' offense is that good), but he is not worth the pickup. Expect his stats the rest of the way to look something like this: 4.27 ERA, 6.4 K/9, maybe 6 wins the rest of the way. If you need the wins and have sacrificed ERA/WHIP, maybe, but Sanchez's upside the rest of the way is pretty limited.
The other trade to watch is the arrival of Ichiro in the Big Apple. I hate to say this as a Rangers fan, but the Yankees made a great move (I promise Tim didn't make me say that on his blog). He may be hitting .260 this year, but the Yankees are only on the hook for about $2 million for the rest of the season, and Ichiro plays stellar defense. As for his fantasy value? I suspect it just skyrocketed. Hitting in that lineup (9th in avg. 5th in Runs scored this year) will only help Ichiro. His runs should increase significantly, and I suspect his average will be helped to due to his new-found protection and a much friendlier hitters park (he was hitting .215 at Safeco, .298 on the road this season). My prediction for the rest of the season? Ichiro will hit .295 with 40-45 runs scored (~110 runs projected for an entire season). Oh and he'll probably steal 18 more bases the rest of the way. Even hitting 8th in that stacked lineup, Ichiro is definitely someone to take a shot on the rest of the season.
Until next time, when hopefully Cole Hamels is a Texas Ranger
JT
No comments:
Post a Comment